How to check what a miner promised against what it delivered

A promise in a filing has three parts: a number, a date and the words around them.

Public companies say what they expect to do. A miner says it will reach so many exahash by a date, energize so many megawatts, or report revenue in a range. Those sentences are forward-looking statements, and every filing that carries one also carries a paragraph saying it may not come true. The paragraph is not the interesting part. The interesting part is that the sentence can be checked later, against the same company's own filings, without any opinion entering.

A statement can be checked only if it has a number and a date. "We expect significant growth" has neither, and this site's specification says such statements are recorded but not scored. "We are targeting 75 exahash by the end of 2025" has both, and it scores. In between sits the directional statement, a direction with no number, like "we expect to continue increasing our computing power": it can be checked for direction but not for size.

Where the promises live.

Four places, in order of formality. The annual report on Form 10-K, in the business section and the discussion of results, where a company describes what it is building and what it expects the building to produce. The quarterly results release, filed as exhibit 99.1 to a Form 8-K, where the current quarter's numbers come with the next quarter's expectations. The monthly production update, another exhibit 99.1, or an exhibit to a Form 6-K for a company organized outside the United States, where hashrate targets are restated month by month. And the investor deck, usually exhibit 99.2, where the targets are drawn as bars and the dates are printed under them.

The outcome lives in the same places, one or more periods later. That is what makes the check possible: the company that said 75 exahash by December is the company that reports its December hashrate in February. The ledger this article draws on records each promise with the document it came from and the document that answered it, and keeps only rows whose quote could be found in the cited document as an exact string.

Pin the number and the date, then read the outcome in the company's own words.

On 2025-07-01, with its June 2025 production update, MARA stated that it was targeting 75 exahash by the end of 2025. That is a number, 75 EH/s, and a date, 2025-12-31. The filing that answers it is the fourth-quarter shareholder letter filed as an 8-K exhibit on 2026-02-26, which reports 66.4 EH/s energized at year end and says, in the company's words, "While below our 75 EH/s target, this outcome reflects deliberate capital discipline."

Three things to notice. The company said the number itself, so no reading between lines was needed. The company gave its reason, and the ledger records the reason next to the shortfall rather than replacing it. And the variance is a fraction with the promise as its base, which is what lets a promise of 75 exahash and a promise of 1.7 exahash sit on the same chart.

Nine hashrate promises from seven companies, scored the same way.

Hashrate is the most common promise a miner makes, and the easiest to check, because every miner reports it every month or every quarter. Here are the nine on file whose date has passed and whose outcome is in a filing, drawn the same way: the figure promised beside the figure delivered.

Two rows need their footnotes. IREN met its 50 exahash and then, by its own account, took most of it apart: the fiscal 2026 annual report puts installed hashrate at 23.2 EH/s as machines were decommissioned to make room for AI cloud capacity. A promise met and then reversed on purpose is still a promise met; the reversal is a separate, later statement. And Argo's 2.4 is what its fleet "can generate", a capacity, set against a go-forward expectation of 1.7; the two are close cousins, not twins, and the ledger says so.

Revenue promised days before the result lands close; capacity promised a year out does not.

The ledger holds other kinds of promise, and the distance between the promise and its date matters more than the kind. A preliminary revenue figure, released two or three weeks before the results, is the company counting money it has already been paid; it lands within a few percent. A megawatt figure a year out depends on a substation, a utility and a construction crew.

The site's specification weights a promise by how specific it was and how far ahead it looked, for this reason: hitting a revenue figure announced three weeks early is not the same feat as hitting a hashrate figure announced a year early, and a ledger that counted them the same would flatter whoever makes the shortest promises.

Three kinds of miss that are not the same thing.

A shortfall in quantity is the plainest: Bitdeer said 221 megawatts at Massillon by the first quarter of 2026 and reported 121 online at the end of it. A slip in timing keeps the quantity and moves the date: Cipher's 2025 annual report expected the Stingray site energized in the first half of 2026, and its first-quarter deck aligned the work with a fourth-quarter energization; MARA's Long Ridge plant was to reach 505 megawatts nameplate in the second half of 2026 and the second-quarter 10-Q says the first quarter of 2027. A withdrawal replaces the promise with a different plan: IREN's installed hashrate went from a met 50 exahash to 23.2 because the company chose to.

The ledger records each with the company's own sentence about it, because the sentence is the fact. What the reader does with a moved date is the reader's business; what this site does is keep the first date next to the second so the move is visible at all. A beat gets the same treatment: Bitdeer's 55.2 exahash against a promised 50 is recorded as plus 10.4 percent, not as praise.

Check any promise in five steps.

1. Copy the sentence from the filing, word for word, with the filing's date. A paraphrase cannot be verified later; a quote can.
2. Write down the number and the date it names. If either is missing, note the statement as directional or vague and do not score it.
3. Find the first filing after the date that reports the same measure, in the same unit and on the same basis: energized against energized, installed against installed, self-mining against self-mining.
4. Subtract, and divide by the promise. Copy the company's own sentence about the outcome next to the result.
5. Compare with the ledger, which holds every row above with both documents, and with the deals article for the megawatt promises that arrive inside a lease.