Analysis: the miners' quarterly filed figures over time, and the pooled tests on their quarter-to-quarter changes
Time series, 2019Q1 to 2026Q3
FormulasHow to read it
Quarterly revenue for MARA, RIOT, WULF, VIP, ANY and BGDE, where each line starts at 100 in 2020Q2
index, 2020Q2 = 100 · calendar quarters 2019Q1 to 2026Q3 · as of 2026-09-06 · data/analysis/time_series.json
Reading: Of the 6 lines, MARA ends highest, at 61,113 in 2026Q2, and VIP lowest, at 72.45 in 2026Q2.
| Period | MARA (index, 2020Q2 = 100) | RIOT (index, 2020Q2 = 100) | WULF (index, 2020Q2 = 100) | VIP (index, 2020Q2 = 100) | ANY (index, 2020Q2 = 100) | BGDE (index, 2020Q2 = 100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019Q1 | ||||||
| 2019Q2 | ||||||
| 2019Q3 | ||||||
| 2019Q4 | ||||||
| 2020Q1 | ||||||
| 2020Q2 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2020Q3 | 291.86 | 126.78 | 121.87 | 131.06 | 99.89 | |
| 2020Q4 | 923.66 (derived) | 272.45 (derived) | 164.34 (derived) | 230.86 (derived) | ||
| 2021Q1 | 3,198 | 1,194 | 119.47 | 236.79 | 105.5 | 100 |
| 2021Q2 | 10,247 | 1,769 | 165.27 | 346.23 | 100.34 | 84.95 |
| 2021Q3 | 18,069 | 3,337 | 184.4 | 765.28 | 116.84 | 156.45 |
| 2021Q4 | 24,106 (derived) | 4,680 (derived) | 734.85 (derived) | 94.84 (derived) | 285.42 (derived) | |
| 2022Q1 | 18,075 | 4,108 | 8.44 | 624.04 | 153.98 | 277.58 |
| 2022Q2 | 8,709 | 3,756 | 53.84 | 490.71 | 215.6 | 282.67 |
| 2022Q3 | 4,435 | 2,384 | 150.21 | 468.43 | 152.19 | 404.83 |
| 2022Q4 | 9,930 | 3,097 (derived) | 371.9 (derived) | 342.74 (derived) | 160.27 (derived) | 240.83 (derived) |
| 2023Q1 | 17,868 | 3,771 | 448.33 | 324.42 | 339.62 | 109.62 |
| 2023Q2 | 28,571 | 3,952 | 600.83 | 314.85 | 613.47 | 150.79 |
| 2023Q3 | 34,194 | 2,672 | 736.85 | 446.9 | 642.42 | 161.95 |
| 2023Q4 | 54,783 (derived) | 4,058 (derived) | 905.17 (derived) | 420.42 (derived) | 863.08 (derived) | 200.31 (derived) |
| 2024Q1 | 57,729 | 4,083 | 1,650 | 413.81 | 779.57 | 268.25 |
| 2024Q2 | 50,719 | 3,605 | 1,383 | 279.47 | 523.68 | 187.38 |
| 2024Q3 | 46,005 | 4,366 | 1,052 | 264.36 | 264.31 | 176 |
| 2024Q4 | 74,921 (derived) | 7,341 (derived) | 1,360 (derived) | 316.61 (derived) | 296.41 (derived) | 215.3 (derived) |
| 2025Q1 | 74,743 | 8,310 | 1,337 | 411.86 | 316.16 | 197.42 |
| 2025Q2 | 83,339 | 7,878 | 1,852 | 275.28 | 338.72 | 136.23 |
| 2025Q3 | 88,206 | 9,281 | 1,966 | 325.77 | 294.39 | 188.27 |
| 2025Q4 | 70,699 (derived) | 7,870 (derived) | 1,393 (derived) | 245.16 (derived) | 305.61 (derived) | 46.18 (derived) |
| 2026Q1 | 61,019 | 8,611 | 1,322 | 445.93 | 215.04 | 68.88 |
| 2026Q2 | 61,113 | 8,972 | 1,740 | 72.45 | 275.2 | 87.93 |
| 2026Q3 |
The quarters each selected company carries, and the latest filing behind them
| MARA | 30 | 2019Q1 | 2026Q2 | 6 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RIOT | 30 | 2019Q1 | 2026Q2 | 7 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 |
| WULF | 29 | 2019Q1 | 2026Q2 | 6 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 |
| VIP | 24 | 2020Q2 | 2026Q2 | 5 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-14 |
| ANY | 30 | 2019Q1 | 2026Q2 | 7 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-14 |
| BGDE | 23 | 2019Q3 | 2026Q2 | 5 | 10-Q filed 2026-08-14 |
A derived fourth quarter is the fiscal year less the three reported quarters and is marked derived in each chart's table; a quarter held by the scale check is a gap.
How to read it
Why this test
229 quarter-pairs from 14 companies: x is the quarter-to-quarter log change in revenue, y the quarter-to-quarter log change in shares outstanding.
MARA 29, RIOT 29, ANY 27, WULF 27, CLSK 22, BGDE 21, VIP 20, CORZ 18, CIFR 13, HUT 12, BTBT 6, IREN 2, KEEL 2, DGXX 1
Pooled across companies and quarters: the points are not independent draws, so the p-value overstates the evidence.
| n | 229 | |
|---|---|---|
| degrees of freedom | 227 | |
| slope | 0.13 | 95% interval -0.023 to 0.283 |
| intercept | 0.028 | |
| SST | 63.2 | total sum of squares |
| SSR | 0.771 | explained by the fit |
| SSE | 62.4 | left over |
| R squared | 0.01 | SSR over SST |
| t, slope | 1.67 | standard error 0.0777 |
| p, slope | 0.096 | two-sided |
| Pearson r | 0.11 | p 0.096 |
| Spearman rho | 0.06 | p 0.386 |
| x mean | 0.0957 | sd 0.447, variance 0.2, median 0.0537 |
| y mean | 0.0405 | sd 0.526, variance 0.277, median 0.0423 |
computed 2026-09-22 from data as of 2026-09-06, written to data/analysis/time_series.json; formulas
Why this test
176 quarter-pairs from 12 companies: x is the quarter-to-quarter log change in revenue, y the quarter-to-quarter log change in cost of revenue.
WULF 27, MARA 23, CLSK 22, BGDE 21, CORZ 21, ANY 17, CIFR 13, HUT 13, RIOT 8, IREN 7, HIVE 2, KEEL 2
Pooled across companies and quarters: the points are not independent draws, so the p-value overstates the evidence.
| n | 176 | |
|---|---|---|
| degrees of freedom | 174 | |
| slope | 0.681 | 95% interval 0.541 to 0.822 |
| intercept | 0.0366 | |
| SST | 51.7 | total sum of squares |
| SSR | 17.8 | explained by the fit |
| SSE | 33.9 | left over |
| R squared | 0.34 | SSR over SST |
| t, slope | 9.55 | standard error 0.0714 |
| p, slope | under 0.0001 | two-sided |
| Pearson r | 0.59 | p under 0.0001 |
| Spearman rho | 0.60 | p under 0.0001 |
| x mean | 0.133 | sd 0.468, variance 0.219, median 0.0972 |
| y mean | 0.127 | sd 0.544, variance 0.296, median 0.0772 |
computed 2026-09-22 from data as of 2026-09-06, written to data/analysis/time_series.json; formulas
Why this test
254 quarter-pairs from 14 companies: x is the quarter-to-quarter log change in total assets, y the quarter-to-quarter log change in shares outstanding.
BGDE 29, CLSK 29, MARA 29, RIOT 29, WULF 29, ANY 27, CIFR 20, VIP 20, CORZ 18, HUT 12, BTBT 6, DGXX 2, IREN 2, KEEL 2
Pooled across companies and quarters: the points are not independent draws, so the p-value overstates the evidence.
| n | 254 | |
|---|---|---|
| degrees of freedom | 252 | |
| slope | 0.191 | 95% interval 0.0398 to 0.342 |
| intercept | 0.0392 | |
| SST | 84.5 | total sum of squares |
| SSR | 2.03 | explained by the fit |
| SSE | 82.5 | left over |
| R squared | 0.02 | SSR over SST |
| t, slope | 2.49 | standard error 0.0768 |
| p, slope | 0.014 | two-sided |
| Pearson r | 0.15 | p 0.014 |
| Spearman rho | 0.21 | p 0.0008 |
| x mean | 0.143 | sd 0.469, variance 0.22, median 0.0278 |
| y mean | 0.0665 | sd 0.578, variance 0.334, median 0.0349 |
computed 2026-09-22 from data as of 2026-09-06, written to data/analysis/time_series.json; formulas
Why this test
81 quarter-pairs from 14 companies: x is the quarter-to-quarter log change in digital assets at fair value, y the quarter-to-quarter log change in revenue.
RIOT 10, VIP 10, HUT 9, CORZ 8, MARA 8, BTBT 7, CIFR 7, ANY 6, WULF 6, HIVE 5, KEEL 2, BGDE 1, CLSK 1, DGXX 1
Pooled across companies and quarters: the points are not independent draws, so the p-value overstates the evidence.
| n | 81 | |
|---|---|---|
| degrees of freedom | 79 | |
| slope | 0.024 | 95% interval -0.0397 to 0.0878 |
| intercept | -0.00408 | |
| SST | 11.1 | total sum of squares |
| SSR | 0.0786 | explained by the fit |
| SSE | 11 | left over |
| R squared | 0.01 | SSR over SST |
| t, slope | 0.75 | standard error 0.032 |
| p, slope | 0.455 | two-sided |
| Pearson r | 0.08 | p 0.455 |
| Spearman rho | 0.21 | p 0.059 |
| x mean | 0.0627 | sd 1.3, variance 1.7, median 0.0218 |
| y mean | -0.00257 | sd 0.373, variance 0.139, median 0.0218 |
computed 2026-09-22 from data as of 2026-09-06, written to data/analysis/time_series.json; formulas